The latest data from realestate.co.nz shows the real estate market is wide open, with the best buying conditions for three years, but buyers are holding back, waiting to see what happens next.
For mortgage advisers it is evident in RBNZ data showing 30% of mortgages being written are for refinancing, up from 22% three years ago.
Realestate.co.nz spokeswoman Vanessa Williams says New Zealanders struggle with uncertainty and, after what has been a tough couple of years, buyers seem to be waiting for a perfect moment that may never arrive. “With three years of steady prices and plenty of homes on the market, conditions are good for buyers.”
ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey also shows the housing market in a sweet spot, with 28% of respondents thinking it is a good time to buy – the highest level in 15 years.
“It’s a good place to be for buyers," ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley (pictured) says. “Low borrowing costs and high housing supply are creating conditions we haven't seen in over a decade."
He says conditions could change next year – more sales will reduce the amount of stock on the market and prices will start to edge up.
Property sale numbers give a better indication of the overall state of the market, Opes Partners says.
Sales peaked at 100,108 in June 2021 and then fell back to just 58,763 in May 2023. People bought a whopping 41.30% fewer properties per year compared to the peak.
By October this year, sales had recovered to 78,832 – 20,069 more properties bought than at the bottom of the market.
On top of this, house prices bottomed out in May 2023. Buying a house now means less risk the property’s value will drop dramatically anytime soon. Most economists are picking a 5% lift in property values next year.
The long-term trend in prices is upwards. Since 1992, on average house prices have risen 7% a year, but RBNZ restrictions such as loan-to-value ratios (LVR) and debt-to-income (DTI) rules will temper big price increases from here on.
While people are not avoiding buying houses altogether, it is now a buyers’ market characterised by high inventory and cautious demand.
Nationally, stock levels increased 4% year-on-year to 35,345 in November, an indication that despite more homes coming to the market sales aren't keeping pace, Williams says.
Gisborne at 15.3% and Northland 13.5% had the highest year-on-year stock level increases. The West Coast and Auckland also recorded solid growth, each increasing by 10.6%.
New listings rose nationally by 10.9% year-on-year to 12,339.
In Northland, Taranaki, and Nelson & Bays new listings rose more than 30% year-on-year. Taranaki recorded its highest-ever November new listings figure with an increase of 33.1% to 338 properties.
Waikato also made a notable return to form, surpassing 1,000 new listings in a single month for the first time since March 2019. The Bay of Plenty recorded more than 800 new listings for the first time since November 2018.
The national average asking price has been stable for three years, having not climbed above $900,000 since 2022, despite inching towards the one million mark at its peak. It now sits at $866,474, a 2.2% year-on-year increase.
Contrary to the national trend, five regions hit all-time November highs – Taranaki ($730,409), West Coast ($512,546), Canterbury ($721,713), Southland ($559,269) and Central Otago/Lakes District ($1,546,260) - while the national average asking price rose 2.2% to $866,474.
Taranaki was the only one of New Zealand’s 19 regions to record double-digit growth, with prices up 11%, highlighting the region’s growing appeal and market momentum, as sellers benefit from heightened confidence and demand.
"Taranaki’s rise in average asking price, paired with new listings hitting their highest level for any November on record, positions the region as a distinct performer in an otherwise steady national market,” Williams says.
“Buying property always comes down to personal circumstances, but this could be a particularly good window to make a move.”
Search
