Reserve Bank springs surprise with dovish OCR forecast

Thursday 9 August 2018

The Reserve Bank surprised economists by signalling it may keep the OCR rate at 1.75% until 2020, pushing back its forecasts in a dovish statement this morning.

By The Landlord

The Reserve Bank was widely expected to keep rates at a record low, yet market economists were taken off guard by the central bank’s language.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr hinted at a softer outlook for the New Zealand economy, following a sustained period of weak economic growth.

Imre Spiezer, head of NZ Strategy at Westpac, said the OCR forecast change had sprung a “dovish surprise to markets”.

Westpac’s Dominick Stephens said the forecast change was “predictable” as he “never thought growth could live up to the hype the Reserve Bank expected”.

He added: “We expected a degree of reaction but the question we are asking now is, are they overreacting? We don’t think GDP growth will be as weak as they say in the near term.”

The Reserve Bank said its decision to push back OCR rate forecast had been partly informed by delays in the Kiwibuild scheme. The Reserve Bank said the delays would likely push back delay GDP growth and inflation.

Christina Leung, of NZIER, said the “extent of the [OCR] forecast [change] was surprising”.

She said: “The market was expecting more of a dovish statement but they have pushed it back more than we expected.

"What is more interesting is the scenario of softer growth and what would get them cutting rates. There is not a lot in it to push them to cut.”

ASB’s Nick Tuffley said the Reserve Bank’s language was “softer than generally expected”, but the bank still expects rates to rise “late next year”.

Tuffley said he expected inflation to pick up more quickly than Reserve Bank forecasts, a factor that could lead to a rate rise before 2020.

The forecast will likely lead to an extended period of low rates for New Zealand borrowers.

In a press conference following the OCR announcement, Orr was questioned about keeping a lid on New Zealand house prices.

Orr said high household debt levels and slowing house price growth could see the central bank "revisit" LVR restrictions.

Here's what the bank said: OCR unchanged and to stay low for longer 

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In / Register to add your comment

Property News

First home buyers pace setters: CoreLogic

First home buyers accounted for nearly one in four residential property buyers in the September quarter, rivalling investors, according to new research.

House Prices

Capital price gains

Looking for capital gains? Best look to Wellington as the latest Trade Me Property data reveals ongoing strong price growth.


Lower vacancy rates in “green” buildings

Commercial landlords take note – “green” office buildings have clear occupancy benefits as well as being cheaper to run, a new report has found.

Site by PHP Developer