“Halo” effect drives prices to record highs

The national median price hit a new record high of $484,650 in September, according to the latest Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) data.

That price is an increase of 15.4%, or $64,650, on September 2014 and an increase of 4.2% on August.

When the impact of the Auckland region’s market was taken out of the equation, the national median price still rose by 4.7% on August.

Further, the Auckland, Waikato / Bay of Plenty and Otago regions all recorded new record median prices.

The data shows that Auckland, Northland and Waikato/Bay of Plenty were driving the real estate market in September.

REINZ chief executive Colleen Milne said there is continued evidence of Auckland investors and first home buyers spreading to other regions causing a “halo” effect.

This was most notable in Northland and Waikato/Bay of Plenty.

“These regions have recorded very strong sales growth so far during 2015, and this is now starting to be seen in the median price data.”

Compared to September 2014, Northland’s “share” of sales rose by over 11% and Waikato/Bay of Plenty’s “share” rose by over 20%, Milne said.

Northland’s median price increased by 26.2% year-on-year and by 4.4% in August to hit $338,000 in September.

In Waikato / Bay of Plenty, the median price went up by 16.9% year-on-year and by 10.5% on August to reach $390,000 in September.

Milne added that inventory was falling quickly due to strong demand in Northland, while in Waikato / Bay of Plenty the volume of sales meant available listings were tight.

Meanwhile, Auckland’s median price rose by 25.4% year-on-year and by 4.2% on August to hit $771,000 in September.

However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, Auckland’s sales volumes were down 0.8% compared with August.

Milne said this indicated that sales volumes were marginally weaker in Auckland than normally expected for this time of year. 

“Anecdotal commentary suggests some softening of demand, but the data shows that sales continue at a brisk pace, with more than half September's sales by auction.

“Prices continue to rise as the increase in the number of listing fails to keep pace with sales.”

Any impact from the new IRD number requirements on offshore buyers in Auckland is not shown in the data, Milne continued.

In her view, the forthcoming relaxation of the LVR restrictions for the regions and low interest rates will have a positive effect on buyer sentiment and activity in the regions.

But she said their effect is hard to measure in the Auckland market.