House prices face downwards pressure

The bank's economists say their indicators are pointing to more downside risk to property prices in spite of excess demand and central bank mortgage approval data implies things are not about to change.

ANZ picks prices to fall, with five of its 10 gauges negative, one neutral with a negative bias, one neutral, two neutral with a positive bias and one positive.

Serviceability/indebtedness, liquidity, globalisation, mortgagee sales and median rent were all negative, though they hinted that the worst was probably over.

Interest rates were neutral with a negative bias with three to five-year rates "above their decade averages".

Affordability was neutral, though this had been dented by rising interest rates.

Supply-demand balance and consents and house sales were neutral with a positive bias, with buyers "holding back as concerns over job prospects and pending changes to the taxation of residential investment".

Migration continued to be a positive for house prices, though the bank's economists said "a rise in departures to Australia remains a key risk" after New Zealand's largest trading partner avoided falling into recession and returns to normality.

The bank's economists conclude the property market is "becalmed" and with prices likely to keep falling after last year's gains.