October reminder that all is not well

Friday 27 November 2009

October has been a timely reminder that "it's not all plain sailing for the real estate market" and house prices are probably going to ease, according to ANZ National Bank's property gauges.

By Paul McBeth

The series, which was boosted to 10 gauges this month, predicts house prices will take "a breather" after a resurgence in the property market underpinned the recovery of New Zealand's economy this year.

Five out of the 10 gauges predict prices will go down this month, with another gauge neutral with a negative bias. One is neutral and two are neutral with a positive bias, with one gauge positive for house prices.

Serviceability and indebtedness, liquidity and globalisation were all negative for prices, as were the two new additions, mortgagee sales and median rent.

Interest rates was neutral with a  negative bias as more deleveraging is expected to come, while affordability was neutral amid rising mortgage rates.

Supply-demand and consents and house sales were neutral with a positive bias as consents stalled last month, though there's still a wide gap between the number of buyers and sellers.

Migration continued to be a positive bias for house prices as more expats return to New Zealand after the global financial crisis eroded employment around the world. Net migration is expected to peak early next year.

Overall, the bank's economists said there is a bias for house prices to decline after a soft October.

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