NZ stocks defy offshore trend to end stronger

The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index ended at 12,067.92, up 56.57 points or 0.47%.

There were 65 rises and 63 falls among the 41.6 million shares (worth $141.6m) traded.

Global stocks had been mixed as investors digested strong bank earnings and monitored ongoing developments in the US-China trade war.

Futures trading suggested the US was in for another down day after Nvidia announced a possible financial charge of US$5.5 billion (NZ$9.3b) following the US Government’s decision to restrict exports of its artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China.

US falls

The Dow Jones Industrial Index finished 0.4% down, the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.1%.

Matt Goodson, managing director at Salt Funds, said the market had done well and was up by 50-odd points against the uncertain backdrop of the major markets.

“Nvidia is down particularly hard with some chips not allowed to be exported to China, so the trade wars continue and tariff wars continue unabated,” Goodson said.

Air NZ ended steady at 57.5c despite announcing a profit downgrade. This was largely due to how it will be compensated for its engine issues.

Air NZ said the downgrade reflected a substantial reduction in the compensation it anticipates receiving from engine manufacturers, despite an increased number of grounded aircraft.

The company now estimates earnings before taxation for the 2025 financial year to be within the range of $150m to $190m, including $35m to $40m in compensation.

“It’s not super easy for the airlines at the moment,” Goodson said. “Certainly, global travel to the US is plunging, and we have seen several airlines around the world come under a bit of pressure from that.

“That’s a separate issue, but we’ll see. Airline profit forecasts are always pretty volatile.”

Running low

Shares in Mercury NZ ended unchanged at $5.78 after revising its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and financial instruments down for the year to $760m from $820m, based on lower hydro inflows.

“They have been fairly conservative,” Goodson said. “They’re assuming flows for the rest of year will be well under 50% of normal, ironically, just as a decent rainstorm hits the area, how much of that fills up Lake Taupō remains to be seen."

“You always get worried at this time of year as lake levels always bottom out sometime in that March, April, May period, and you just don’t quite know how well we’re going to fill up.

“Our markets are attuned to that, given the light hydro conditions last year.”

Scales Corp ended 6c higher at $4.12 after announcing that it had acquired a further 7.5% holding in subsidiary Shelby JV LLC (Shelby), a pet food manufacturer, for US$24.4m.

“It was at a relatively full price, but it reflects that the business has been performing pretty well,” Goodson said.

Market leader Meridian Energy, which reported very low hydro inflows for March, dropped 13c to $5.74.

“If you put the [Meridian] monthly operating reports together, it certainly looks like current consensus forecasts are a bit high,” Goodson said.

Heartland Bank gained 5c to 75c after a positive earnings update, which followed on from a half year report which raised concerns about its bad debt write-offs.

In Wednesday’s update, Heartland said it remained on track to achieve net profit after tax on an underlying basis for the financial year ending June 30, 2025 of at least $45m.