Values plunge in more than 80% of the country’s suburbs

CoreLogic NZ’s interactive Mapping the Market tool, updated quarterly, shows 803 of the 955 acoss the country recorded a fall in median values between June and September.

Tauranga and Dunedin had falls across the board while 97% of suburbs in Auckland and wider Wellington (city, Porirua, Upper Hutt, Lower Hutt) fell in value. In Christchurch 92% of the city was impacted and 85% in Hamilton.

Across New Zealand, 81 suburbs saw median values fall by 5% or more, most notably in Auckland (14), Wellington (23), and Dunedin (17). Of those 81 suburbs with big falls, there were also six apiece in Horowhenua and Whangarei.

In contrast, 152 suburbs nationally still recorded an increase in value, including 27 which appreciated in value by 2% or more. CoreLogic ‘s chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says those still rising were generally small or rural areas such as Blakestown in Grey, Halfmoon Bay in Southland, Patea in South Taranaki, Ngatea in Hauraki.

Davidson says the figures it confirm the extent of the housing downswing and how much it had accelerated each quarter this year.

“We’ve seen signs of weakness gathering pace as the lagged impact of rate rises, inflation and other economic influences catches up with the market. The main centres have been hit hardest.

Auckland

Over the past three months, 97% of Auckland suburbs have had a drop in median property value. Almost 180 recorded a fall of at least 1%, and in 14 suburbs, drops of 5% or more have been recorded including Glen Eden, Papatoetoe, Henderson, and Panmure. Davidson says falls of $100,000 or more occurred in seven Auckland suburbs, all of them “upper end” areas where median values are at least $2 million.

Hamilton

Over the past three months, 29 out of 34 Hamilton suburbs had median property value drops, and of the five where increases were recorded, only Deanwell and Queenwood registered had a rise in excess of 1%. The largest falls were in Grandview Heights (-4.8%), Huntington (-3.6%), and Fitzroy (-3.2%).

Tauranga

Median property values in Tauranga fell across the board over the past three months, ranging from a 1.8% decline in Tauranga south to a 5.3% drop in Hairini. Tauranga still has eight $1 million-plus suburbs, down from 10 in the previous quarter, with Papamoa and Maungatapu dropping out of the exclusive million-dollar club.

Wellington

There have been near universal falls in median property values across the wider Wellington area lately including Wellington city, Porirua, Lower Hutt and Upper Hutt, Falls of at least 7% have been recorded in Ranui, Naenae, Wallaceville, Rongotai, and Taita. Seatoun remains the most expensive suburb with a median value of $1.99 million, which is down 2.9% from June’s level.

Christchurch

The garden city hasn’t escaped the weakness either, with 76 out of 83 suburbs recording a decline in median property values since June. The largest falls (-4%) were in Kennedys Bush, Bromley, and Wigram.

Dunedin

All suburbs in Dunedin saw median property values drop in the three months to September, ranging from -1.1% in Glenleith to -8.2% in Shiel Hill. Maori Hill and East Taieri remain in the million-dollar club, but both have seen values fall since June.

Market outlook

Davidson says while there are still short-term challenges ahead for the market, there were also potential green shoots for next year.

“The rise in mortgage rates over the past year means new borrowers can’t get as much finance, and existing borrowers have to adjust too.

He says there’s also now a sense of light at the end of the tunnel given the low unemployment figures and forecasts that mortgage rates could potentially be close to a peak. People are adjusting to the new norm, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the market trough in the first half of 2023.