House Prices

Mixed post peak value bag - REINZ

National property values continue to fall with the rate of annual growth dropping from 3.8% in June 2018 to 1.7% in June 2019, the latest REINZ House Price Index reveals.

Wednesday, July 10th 2019

However, the index also shows that values remain in positive territory and some regions are still seeing strong value growth, with Southland leading the charge in June.

The Southland region had the strongest value growth in the country, with a 20.2% increase to a new record high index level of 3,049.

That’s as compared to the annual increase of 10.5% seen by the region in June 2018.

It was followed by the Manawatu/Wanganui region with an annual growth rate of 18.3% to 3,089, up from the 9.8% increase it saw in June 2018, and the Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay region with a 9.1% annual increase to 2,738.

REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell says Southland was clearly the shining star in June and that, over the last two years, there’s only been two months where the region hasn’t experienced double-digit year-on-year growth.

“With such strong level of growth for so long now, this is certainly an area to watch over the coming months."

Looking around the country, 11 out of 12 regions saw an annual increase in their index level – although the index levels in most are down from their peak.

[Take a look at the REINZ House Price Index table here.]

Regions that saw strong results were Otago (+8.3%) and Waikato (+5.2%) which were up to new record index level highs of 2,932 and 2,949 respectively as compared to June last year.

The only region not to experience an increase was Auckland, which saw an annual decrease of -3.5% to 2,784.

Norwell says the annual figure shows a fall of -3.5% in the value of Auckland’s market, but the last two months have shown an uplift of +0.3% from April to May and +0.1% from May to June.

While it’s too early to call this a trend, it is certainly the first signs of some renewed confidence returning to the market, she says.

“What makes this growth in Auckland more interesting is that it’s in winter, when traditionally values are a little more subdued. Clarity around the capital gains tax being off the table and record low interest rates are a key influence here.

“We look forward to seeing what happens in the coming months as we get closer to spring and more confidence returns to the market.”

This month REINZ has released the latest instalment of its House Price Index separately to its other data on median prices, sales volumes, and days to sell. The remaining data will be released later this week.

Comments

On Thursday, July 11th 2019 3:36 pm Winka said:

Or could it be the old "Dead Cat Bounce?" First the biggest growth areas fall, then moving down the 'ranks' to Southland & co. Would we not need to really look into why Auckland is said to be enjoying this "bounce?" Compliance factors need to be assessed to see if they may have been 'contributing' because someone said that compliance in the guise of new scaffold and white plastic wrapped buildings have given the impression of a booming economy. If that suggestion is correct, what do we expect when this seemingly 'over-compliance' work is completed? Australia is said to be set for it's big 'correction' very soon, and the signs are certainly there to support that. Again, are we supposed to be immune from that when it happens, we are after all, only 2 or 3 hours flight away? A sneeze becoming us with pneumonia?

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