So for this month’s NZ Property Investor magazine, we talked to a range of industry experts to find out where we are sitting on the property clock.
The property clock is a thing of beauty: it’s simple, elegant, and as predictable as your wristwatch.
The actual property market, on the other hand, is complex, messy and unpredictable.
That’s what makes it so surprising that there seems to be a consensus about where we are in the cycle right now: it’s 12 o’clock, or close to it.
In the view of Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan, the clock is at 12:30.
Despite the fact that certain regions have their own special circumstances (particularly Christchurch), he believes these mini-cycles are still part of an overall market clock that has just past its peak.
“The upturn’s been going for a long time, but there have been distortionary effects on the market,” he said.
Last year’s introduction of the bright-line test and several rounds of increasingly restrictive rules around loan-to-value ratios by the Reserve Bank have “thrown the numbers around a bit”.
Auckland has led the boom and it feels like it’s going to lead on the way down, said Kiwibank chief economist Zoe Wallis.
“We’re seeing Auckland at about one o’clock – past the boom and starting to see signs of quite a bit of pull-back. But we’re still seeing supply and demand out of whack and it will take time to correct.
“The rest of the country is at 12 o’clock but, in terms of rental yield, Dunedin looks quite attractive, so that market is now playing catch-up.”
There are regional variations but it’s a similar story overall, according to the panel of experts.
To read more of what they all had to say on the property clock – and what it all means - click here to get the digital issue of NZ Property Investor magazine.
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