Shallow LVR effect likely - QV

National residential property values have continued to rise in recent months with the national average hitting $631,432 in this month’s QV house price index.

This means that nationwide values increased by 0.6% over the past three months and, once adjusted for inflation, by 11.4% in the year to March.

However, while national values might be following an upward trajectory, values in Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga have decreased.

In Auckland, the average value decreased by 0.2% over the past three months and now sits at $1,045,362.

It is the second consecutive month that values in Auckland have gone down, but the region still saw year-on-year value growth of 10.8%, once adjusted for inflation.

In Hamilton, another recently hot market, the average value went down by 0.4% over the past three months leaving it at $532,888.

At the same time, Tauranga saw its quarterly value growth slow to 0.6% but its average value now sits at $590,608.

QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said that values in parts of Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch are showing a slight downward trend.

But values are stabilising and continuing to rise in other parts of these main centres as well, she said.

For example, values in the former Waitakere, Manukau, and North Shore city areas all decreased over the last three months.

Yet values in the former Auckland city central suburbs, as well as in Rodney, Franklin and Papakura all rose slightly in the last three months.

Rush said this means the downward trend and dampening in these markets seen since the latest round of LVR restriction may be shallower than expected.

“It’s possible we may see values start to rise in these main centres in coming months given that the market is still being driven by a high number of sales to investors, record high net migration, relatively low interest rates, a lack of supply and fewer taxes on property investment than many other countries.”

In the case of the Super City, the LVR restrictions appear to be dampening the parts of the market traditionally popular with investors.

QV’s Auckland valuer James Steele said the top end of the market where cash buyers are not affected by the LVRs continues to see strong value growth.

“While areas with lower value investor housing stock - like Manurewa, Papakura in the south, Hillcrest and Sunnynook on the North Shore, Ranui and Glen Eden in the West – areas previously dominated by investor demand have seen values drop back.”

Meanwhile, the data showed there were market exceptions to the declining trend.

Rush said the Wellington region continues to see some of the strongest value growth of any area in New Zealand.

The region’s average value was up by 3.7% over the past three months to hit $595,501.

But the growth was particularly strong in more affordable areas outside the central city such as Porirua and the Hutt Valley.

“Values also continue to rise steadily in Dunedin which remains New Zealand’s most affordable city”, Rush added.

Over the past three months, Dunedin experienced 2.7% growth in values which left its average value at $363,821.