Bad news on Auckland consents

There was a 12% year-on-year increase in the number of dwelling consents issued for Auckland in May (732), according to Statistics New Zealand’s new consent data.

But, overall, the trend for the number of new dwellings consented in Auckland has tailed off since late 2015.

This trend is mirrored in the nationwide consents statistics too.

Statistics New Zealand Building business indicators senior manager Neil Kelly said consents for new dwellings are at a higher level than in 2015, but there has been little growth in recent months.

In May 2016, 2,520 new dwellings were consented – which was the highest monthly number of new houses since August 2007.

Once seasonally adjusted, the number of new dwellings fell by 0.9% in May, as compared to April. This follows a 6.8% rise in April.

Annually, there was a 13% year-on-year increase in new dwelling consents.

However, Kelly said, while the trend for new stand-alone houses is increasing, for all dwellings it is flat.

“Fluctuations in apartments, townhouses, and other dwelling types offset steady growth in stand-alone houses.”

For example, May saw a sharp fall in dwelling consents issued in Canterbury, but this was a decline on April when the region saw a large number of retirement units being consented.

However, it is the flattening out of Auckland’s consent trend which is of most concern.

Westpac industry economist David Norman said May’s consents rose in seasonally adjusted terms, but it was from some very weak results in April and a bounce was expected.

“Running annual totals for Auckland residential consents suggest that the number of annual consents is flattening out in the 9,300 to 9,600 range.”

This is well below the build rate of 1,100 to 1,200 new dwellings per month it is estimated that Auckland needs to address its shortage and keep pace with demand.

Norman said the slowdown in Auckland consents is bad news given the city’s housing shortfall.

It appeared to be the result of developers waiting for the Auckland Unitary Plan to be finalised before proceeding with development, he said.

“This hesitancy highlights the need for a speedy finalisation of the Plan and clear direction to be provided with regard to development, if the upward trajectory in residential building is to resume soon in the city.”