Helm: What shortage?

He has compared the number of new listings between January and June in each year between 2007 and 2014, and found that since 2009, there has been very little change.

“2008 as we all know was the start of the Global Financial Crisis and the worst year for NZ property for many generations. Judge anything against those days and the picture will be skewed.”

Compared to 2013, there were marginally fewer listings in the first six months of this year – 63,436 compared to 64,876. In 2012, there were 66,572 listings in the first six months, and 61,132 in 2011.

Helm said it was a myth to suggest prices were rising because of a shortage of new listings.

"The fact is that we now operate in a very stable supply market. Much as real estate agents may wish to see more properties on the market, the fact is levels in 2007 and 2008 are purely historic fact not a target to be achieved. Even in Auckland where the pressure in the property market is judged to be felt the worst, listings are barely changed comparing this year to last or in fact any of the past six years - the Auckland property market is experiencing a steady supply of new listings. So steady that you could be fairly confident that the balance of 2014 will see a further 22,000 properties listed between July and December.”

Auckland has had between 20,000 and 22,000 new listings in the first six months of each year since 2009, except for 2010, when there were 23,503.

Helm said it was not a question of increasing demand, either.

Nationwide, sales rates are falling. "In the first six months of this year total sales have reached 36,164 down 11% as compared to the first six months of 2013, whereas listings have barely changed. In terms of a clearance rate in these first six months of this year the total sales of 36,164 represent, as noted earlier, 57% of the new listings. A year ago the figure based on the first half of 2013 was 62% indicating that there is less success in property sales and therefore clearly no shortage.”

Auckland's clearance rate of 72% as also a drop from the year before, when the rate was 78%. 

Helm said the statistics clearly showed steady supply and slowing sales. "Therefore no shortage."