LVR move likely to hit provinces hardest: QV

Its latest property value index shows values for October are up 8.9% over the past year, and 2.7% over the past three months, nationwide. They are now 10.4% above their previous market peak.

Research director Jonno Ingerson said that index was being driven by the price rises in Auckland and Canterbury. “Most of the rest of the main centres are also increasing but at a slower rate.  In contrast, many of the provincial and rural areas have declined in value."

Auckland’s prices are up almost 14% over the past year and Christchurch’s are 11.8% higher than the same time in 2012.

LVR restrictions introduced last month, which limit the number of low-deposit loans banks can do, could have a considerable impact on the market, Ingerson said. 

Many first-home buyers would have to reconsider their options.

“Some will choose to hold off and save more, some will find other sources of money to boost their deposit, and others will lower their price expectations. It will take some months before any evidence of this becomes clear."

But he said Auckland and Canterbury, where there was the highest demand for property, would probably feel the impact of the restrictions less.

“If some first-home buyers decide to drop out, there will still be other willing buyers. The lower number of first-home buyers also offers opportunities for property investors. First-home buyers are often driven by emotion and a desire to get into the property market. As a result they may pay more for a particular property than investors who are considering more whether the investment stacks up for a particular sale price."

Provincial centres would be especially affected, because the departure of first-home buyers could leave a lasting gap in the market, he said.

Values in Hamilton are still growing slowly, now up 1.7% over the past three months, and 5.1% over the past year.

Prices across the Wellington area have been flat, now sitting 2.3% above this time last year. 

Most of the provincial centres are still experiencing growth.  In the North Island, Whangarei, Taupo, Gisborne and Palmerston North are all up 2%-3% over the past year.  New Plymouth is up considerably, with 5.3% year-on-year growth and 2.1% growth over the past three months. 

Napier has seen a small decline over the past three months.

In the South Island, annual growth seems to be generally a little higher than provinces in the North Island.  Asburton, Timaru and Central Otago have all seen annual growth of over 6%, whereas areas such Kaikoura, Invercargill and Southland have seen limited growth if not a decline over the past year.