Alexander: Rules will push up regional house prices
Thursday 22 August 2013
Loan-to-value restrictions may boost other parts of the New Zealand property market as buyers turn their attention away from Auckland, says BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander.
By The Landlord
It has been suggested that the new restrictions – to be imposed on October 1 – could quash markets around the country that are only just getting off the ground. Most regional centres are only experiencing price growth of less than 5% year-on-year.
But Alexander said the restriction, which will force banks to lend only 10% of their total loan books to borrowers with deposits of 20% or less, would hasten price appreciation outside the biggest city, rather than drive prices down.
“Some buyers will shift their attention out of Auckland to other, cheaper, parts of the country where their deposit will go further so the Reserve Bank move will accelerate the spreading of Auckland and Christchurch house price gains to the rest of New Zealand. The spread of ultra-fast broadband will encourage this population spread also to some degree.”
Banks would likely lend their 10% to those prepared to pay a premium for it, Alexander said.
He said the restrictions were an experiment that would eventually be acknowledged as not as effective as a monetary policy instrument. They would cause a catch-up period of official cash rate rises that could send the New Zealand dollar to very high levels, hurting exporters.
“The world remains a very uncertain place and that means businesses and households should take great care with the amount of debt they take on and the proportion of that debt left at floating interest rates.”
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Remember Auckland’s “halo effect”? Well, it’s happening again but this time it’s at play in the Wellington region as the capital’s market powers along.
Technology and changes to the way people work are set to transform the commercial property sector and investors need to be attuned to these developments.
The latest Reserve Bank lending data reveals investors borrowed more than $1 billion in March, the highest figure since November, but a 10% fall on the same period last year.