House Prices

Bear market risk greater, says broker

The risk the sharemarket will go into a downturn is now greater than the risk it will go higher, according to sharebroker Goldman Sachs JB Were.

Monday, October 04th 2004

In an equities outlook report entitled Into the Bearpit, analyst Bernard Doyle argues the sharemarket has risen 50% since February on a capital gain and reinvested dividends basis. The gains have continued despite evidence that domestic and global growth both peaked during the second quarter of 2004; that house prices are slowing and there is a risk they will go into decline; that bond valuations are stretched; and that GS JB Were expects global equities to range trade (mark time) for the next six to nine months.

Mr Doyle's analysis showed two common characteristics of past sharemarket downturns were monetary tightening and rising global risk aversion.

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Heartland Bank - Online 6.69
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.74
Wairarapa Building Society 6.95
Unity 6.99
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special 7.04
ICBC 7.05
China Construction Bank 7.09
BNZ - Classic 7.24
ASB Bank 7.24
ANZ Special 7.24
TSB Special 7.24
Unity First Home Buyer special 6.45
Heartland Bank - Online 6.45
China Construction Bank 6.75
TSB Special 6.75
ICBC 6.75
ANZ Special 6.79
ASB Bank 6.79
AIA - Go Home Loans 6.79
Kiwibank Special 6.79
BNZ - Classic 6.79
Unity 6.79
Westpac Special 6.39
China Construction Bank 6.40
ICBC 6.49
SBS Bank Special 6.55
Kiwibank Special 6.55
BNZ - Classic 6.55
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.55
ASB Bank 6.55
AIA - Go Home Loans 6.55
TSB Special 6.59
Kainga Ora 6.99
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19
AIA - Back My Build 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39
Credit Union Auckland 7.70
ICBC 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99
Pepper Money Essential 8.29
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40
First Credit Union Standard 8.50
Kiwibank 8.50

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