Misc

RBNZ should stop surprising the market: economist

The Reserve Bank surprised the market for a third time running, this time by not only leaving interest rates unchanged but also in its dovish rhetoric which suggests only one further small rate increase, if any, will be necessary.

Sunday, March 14th 2004

Governor Alan Bollard justified the do-nothing stance by noting that domestic inflation is being offset by weak imported inflation and the strong New Zealand dollar and because of tentative signs the economy may be slowing.

The extent of the surprise can be seen in the way wholesale interest rate markets reacted, the 90-day bank bill rate dropping 15 basis points to 5.5% and the June bank bill futures falling nine basis points to the equivalent of 5.6%.

"They’ve been listening from the sound of it. It’s by far the most dovish (statement) you could have expected," says Brendan O’Donovan, chief economist at Westpac Bank. O’Donovan had hoped Bollard would "see sense" and leave rates unchanged.

He notes that the Reserve Bank’s assumptions have factored in a sharp drop in net migration which should take the heat out of the housing market.

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Heartland Bank - Online 6.69
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.74
Wairarapa Building Society 6.95
Unity 6.99
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special 7.04
ICBC 7.05
China Construction Bank 7.09
BNZ - Classic 7.24
ASB Bank 7.24
ANZ Special 7.24
TSB Special 7.24
Unity First Home Buyer special 6.45
Heartland Bank - Online 6.45
China Construction Bank 6.75
TSB Special 6.75
ICBC 6.75
ANZ Special 6.79
ASB Bank 6.79
AIA - Go Home Loans 6.79
Kiwibank Special 6.79
BNZ - Classic 6.79
Unity 6.79
Westpac Special 6.39
China Construction Bank 6.40
ICBC 6.49
SBS Bank Special 6.55
Kiwibank Special 6.55
BNZ - Classic 6.55
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.55
ASB Bank 6.55
AIA - Go Home Loans 6.55
TSB Special 6.59
Kainga Ora 6.99
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19
AIA - Back My Build 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39
Credit Union Auckland 7.70
ICBC 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99
Pepper Money Essential 8.29
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40
First Credit Union Standard 8.50
Kiwibank 8.50

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