Blog: The Landlord says...

We Kiwis have a bit of a fascination with house price stats, which probably is no surprise considering our so called love affair with bricks and mortar.

I suspect this penchant to look at house price stats will become even more interesting following the awful events in Christchurch earlier this month.

It’s our second biggest city and accounts for its fair share of house sales each month. However following the quake the market has stopped dead in its tracks.

Part of the reason is to do with insurance, or the lack of appetite for insurers to issue cover at the moment.

In coming months this is likely to distort the numbers produced by organisations like QV and REINZ.

But the quake also raises lots of other questions which will no doubt test the minds of property investors. One is that we often talk about the best house to buy as investments are low maintenance brick and tile properties.

Following the quake it seems most of the damage has been to these types of property rather than the wooden, weatherboard, tin roof type houses.

Also you have to wonder what will happen to house prices in the Garden City once sales start again. Will people, including investors, still want to buy property there? Or will they opt for other areas?

Maybe, if they are buying in Christchurch the criteria for may change and premiums will be paid for good quality buildings which have withstood the destruction unharmed?

Another thought which has crossed my mind is that maybe there is a potential “leaky home” type crisis brewing. Engineers certify a building is sound following the quake but years later some damage is found which is expensive to repair and impacts on the value of the property.

We’ve been keeping an eye on what is happen on Landlords.co.nz and the next issue of NZ Property Investor will have a feature on what the quake means for property investors. We’d love to hear your thoughts on what the big shake has meant for the property market and particularly investors. Leave a comment here or email your thoughts to editor@landlords.co.nz

The little theme of this week’s newsletter is about looking ahead at the property market and what is happening. Pondering the market is something we often do and it is worth addressing again as there is so much uncertainty and change.

While the news has been pretty gloomy and the housing market appears to be dead, I wonder if it is as bad as some make out?

As readers know we try to be a bit more balanced in our view on the market and look for positives as well as negatives.

One thing that strikes me is winter is always a moribound season for house sales; this year is no different.

Some interesting figures from Alistair Helm yesterday show that the trend quite well. Often when we enter the spring period the market lifts quite swiftly.

On a month by month basis the last set of numbers looked sad. However its worth looking at them with a longer term view.

Helm’s reports says sales fell by 2.9% from June to July, and a total of 4,411 property sales were recorded by licensed real estate agents in July.

Back in July 2009 the total sales was 6,014. On a moving annual basis sales are up 2.8% with 63,701 sales in the past 12 months as compares to 61,952 in the prior 12 months.

The stratified price fell from $363,925 in June to $359,525 in July. The June price is up just 1.8% as compared to July 2009.

Sale prices across the country has remained fairly stable over the past nine month with some small ups and downs. The current price is still 3.1% below the peak price in the market back in November 2007.

Looking ahead there are a couple of warming signs. One is my discussions with real estate agents. No-one shies away from the fact June and July were awful periods. However, word getting back to us is that August has been far better with more buying activity and more stock coming onto the market.

While we put together the September issue of the NZ Property investor Magazine we also came across comments that were far more supportive of the market than one would believe if they listened to only some commentors and media.

Everyone agrees it is a buyers’ market and those in the position are doing just that. Again comment which came through was that it’s better now as “there has been a clean-out of timewasters, dreamers and fly-by-nighters.”

The other slightly positive factor was last week’s immigration numbers. (Read about them here).

And if I had to add another it would interest rates. The emerging view is that the next official cash rate will come later rather than sooner, and overall the increases will be less than what we have seen in other cycles.

So the next set of numbers will give us a good feel for whether these positive signs turn into activity.

I started by talking about looking ahead and finding out what is happening in the market. You can help do that too. The annual ANZ/NZPIF survey is on. You can take part here (and go in the draw to win a prize).

It’s often said that New Zealanders have a real love for property, but I wonder how far it will stretch?

We know the government has been trying to break up this long term love affair, but with little success. Judging by two surveys, one run by Landlords.co.nz and the other by QV, investors are going to remain property investors.

However this week we have had more evidence that the local housing market is pretty flat and there are low sales volumes. In a word it’s lethargic.

Investors have been used to active markets in recent years and could well be interested in something more exciting than the local market.

It seems quite a few New Zealanders have bought property in Australia but I wonder how attractive the “lucky country” is currently.

I did read a piece which said the Australia has one of the most expensive house markets in the world.

One of the “new” things that I’m hearing about in the market is a number of companies wanting to promote the idea that Kiwis buy residential property in the United States.

Yes this sounds a little outlandish at face value, but the numbers being bandied around will look attractive.

I assume a lot of these properties are ones where the lenders have foreclosed on them and wanting out.

I have come across this idea before. One of the first times was when I profiled a quite remarkable Rotorua-based property investor Tracey Hintz. She owned lots of property in New Zealand and employed many different strategies.

However she also bought some property in the United States and made some good money.

There is a warning with this story. It’s not all plain sailing and the US housing market is remarkably different to ours and how it operates. No doubt this is more we will hear about soon.

I’m interested to see how many investors would consider investing in the US? Once I have some examples of the numbers being talked about I’ll post them here.

PS: You can now follow us on Twitter www.twitter.com/landlordsnz

@landlordsnz

One of the questions at the moment is whether property investors are selling up post the Budget or continuing on?

Reading the headlines there are conflicting views. Our survey at Landlords.co.nz shows that very few investors are planning to quit the market due to the removal of the ability to claim depreciation and changes to LAQC rules.

However, others suggest that there is a sell off happening.

Of course I will be a little subjective on this and say that our survey sums up the mood of the market pretty accurately.

We are finding little evidence of a mass sell off and looking at real estate listings it doesn’t appear landlords running for the hills. Indeed if you look at REINZ’s numbers today it is becoming more of a buyers’ market and investors will be in on the action.

It was suggested that maybe the survey is a little skewed as readers of the NZ Property Investor Magazine and Landlords.co.nz are, let’s say, a little more professional and do some more research on their investments than others. (I couldn’t possibly comment).

Then there was this story yesterday that residential property investors in Canterbury are quitting “en masse”.

A sale of 20 properties in a metropolitan city doesn’t seem like en masse. On closer inspection the story is actually good news.

Investors are selling for a variety of reasons. Some of them are getting rid of underperforming assets. Others are highly leveraged and have investments don’t stack up. Others have had bad experiences and poor advice.

What is good about this? The fact that investors are getting rid of non-performing assets is good. Why continue to hold onto a dud? Maybe these people will buy more property? Yes, the Budget will force out some people who probably shouldn’t have invested in property in the first place.

As for whether there will be a wholesale exodus from investment property I say no. Many people like property as it is an investment they can touch and feel and have control over. In fact it is one asset class where the investor can actually add value.

Many investors have no desire to put money into shares, bonds and finance companies – partly because they do not trust the people who run them and they can’t “see” what happens to their money.

There’s a saying that taxi drivers are a good barometer of what is happening in the world and that they have a good idea of what people are talking about. Why do I mention this?

Well on Wednesday I took a taxi out to Auckland airport to catch a plane home and the driver asked, as they do: “What do you do?”

Since this chain of cabs had magazines for their customers I mentioned the NZ Property Investor Magazine.

“I’ve read that,” he said. It turned out this chap, who I guess was getting on towards retirement age, owned four properties. Two in Auckland and two in Australia.

From here to the airport we had a good yarn about investing.

In many ways my driver was probably typical of a lot of investors. Started out not knowing too much; learnt along the way and was doing it to prepare for retirement.

Just an ordinary bloke who had the wherewithal to get off his butt and look after himself.

Of course our discussion turned to the Budget and what it means for him and his wife, as property investors. The answer was that he wasn’t too worried. Clearly not impressed with Finance Minister Bill English, but the changes won’t derail his property investing activities.

The story is interesting as this driver, as I said, is probably pretty typical of many investors. They are not speculators or people trying to rort the system as many suggest.

Are these people, the ones Rob Muldoon would have called Kiwi Battlers really the people the government should be picking on?

Hell no.

These politicians spend plenty of time in taxis (at our expense). Maybe they should engage with their people and see some reality.

Next week is shaping up to be fairly a interesting one for the housing market and where it is headed.

It’s not quite the big bang – that’ll be May 20 when the government unveils its new taxes in the Budget.

Rather, next week we see the latest house sales data from QV and REINZ, plus we have the next Official Cash Rate announcement from the Reserve Bank.

Anecdotal evidence we are hearing is that the housing market has slowed considerable, especially amongst investors.

There have also been reports floating around that a good number of investors are saying enough is enough. Let’s sell before the government destroys the market effectively taking away property investors’ retirement savings.

However, others are sitting tight waiting to see what happens.

The OCR announcement is a critical event to watch. While we are not expecting the governor, Alan Bollard, to increase the cash rate (like his counterpart across the Tasman did this week), we will be watching for a strong steer on where rates are heading. Or more precisely, we know they are heading up, we want an idea of when and how steeply they will rise.

There will be a point where borrowers enjoying these wonderfully low floating home loan rates will have to make a big decision.  Stay floating or move to a fixed rate? If it is the latter, the question becomes what term?

At the moment it looks like the shorter duration loans – out to around two years – will be the ones to go for. Longer term loans look pretty expensive right now, even though we have seen some decreases in the past couple of weeks.

So next week will be one to watch. While the data and news isn’t likely to spark huge amounts of activity, it will be fundamental information needed to plan future moves in the property market.

The talk about changes to the tax system has died down a little and now reality is starting to sink in.

Most commentary has been around the fact that the proposed changes are designed to whack residential property investors. The anti-property brigade has been in strong voice once again pushing the spurious line all property investors are fat cats rorting the system; thankfully investors have been putting up a pretty good defence.

While things are still murky around what the government will do and how far it is prepared to go to alienate a good chunk of its support base, there is acceptance change will happen.

As I have digested the changes and talked to other investors it has become clear this is big.

Indeed I would argue the changes are once-in-a-generation stuff. The rules around residential property investing will totally change. The business will be totally different and investors will have to change their approach.

I have heard that many investors have got the heebie geebies and are already looking to exit and have put properties on the market.

I’m not sure that is necessary. The changes don’t necessarily mean that investing in residential property will no longer be profitable. It means you will need to think about how you approach it.

One change I suggest will happen is that some of these companies who find properties for investors and sell them to them on the basis of depreciation gains and tax benefits will struggle to survive.

Also the changes are likely to drive up rents over the medium term. While that is a plus for investors, tenants won’t be happy with the government.

The March issue of NZ Property Investor will be giving you lots more information about what these changes mean and what you can do adjust.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the changes and how you plan to adjust to them. You can comment below or send an email to thelandlord@landlords.co.nz

PS: I was in Auckland this week and attended one of Kieran Trass’s breakfast presentations. He has plenty of views on the changes and also some ideas on what to do. If you are in Auckland and want to attend one of these Wednesday sessions click here.

The Reserve Bank governor threw a cat amongst the market pigeons this morning, defying predictions about when rates will rise.

Economists and the market have all been predicting that the Reserve Bank will have to back off its earlier predictions about rate hikes. Some even argued increases to the OCR could occur early in the New Year, rather than late in 2010.

Today they were right about one thing: the OCR was left at its historical low of 2.50%. Where they were wrong was with Bollard’s position that he sees no need to start tightening monetary policy soon and the increases are still some time in the second half of next year.

He made his views very clear in this part of his statement: “In contrast to current market pricing, we see no urgency to begin withdrawing monetary policy stimulus, and we expect to keep the OCR at the current level until the second half of 2010.”

Just for the record, current market pricing was saying there were expectations for a 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike in January and 200 points of hikes priced in over the next 12 months.

The central bank’s comments today will do nothing to stop the on-going increases to medium and long-term fixed rate home loans. The pricing of these mortgages comes off the back of what is happening overseas. Bollard and the Reserve Bank have no control over them.

However, today’s announcement will mean that variable rates stay low and, arguably, there could be some more downward pressure on them.

There is already a big variation in rate cards. In the competitive floating rate market the range is from BNZ’s 5.59% for its Total Money product, through to ANZ’s 6.45%. Added to this you need to look at revolving credit rates too as some lenders are using this product as its leading variable rate offer. Here the range is from Westpac’s 5.69% to 6.85% at HSBC.

Adding to the complexity of this market there are a number of lenders with more than one offering. ANZ has in the past month introduced what it calls its “Simple Variable” floating rate which has a few conditions attached, but is competitively priced at 5.69%.

We, the New Zealand Property Investors’ Federation are concerned about the high level of misinformation around taxation of property and the introduction of a capital gains tax (CGT).

The following is a reply to much of the misinformation and outlines why a CGT is not a magic bullet to solve New Zealand’s economic problems.

A CGT will not stop property price changes. Countries with a CGT have had at least the same level of property price increases as New Zealand, with many having greater increases. If anything, a CGT will increase property prices as vendors demand higher prices to offset the tax.

Rental property does not have a tax advantage over other investments or businesses. This was clearly confirmed in 2007 by Deputy Commissioner of Inland Revenue, Robin Oliver, when asked by a government select committee if there was some tax advantage for investments in rental housing.

“The short answer is there is none” was Oliver’s reply. “Rules about expenses for deducting costs such as interest, upkeep and maintenance, as well as paying tax on income, are the same for investments in shares or anything else. In fact under the housing case, the capital gains boundary is brought back a bit. There are tighter rules regarding what is a capital gain.”

With the exception of fund managers, anyone who generates an income through trading an asset (property, shares, gold, antiques etc) is taxed on the profit they make.

Property traders/developers/speculators are required to pay tax on profits they make through selling property. The IRD has been allocated over $14m to ensure that people in this sector pay the tax they owe and is achieving good results.

Anyone who sets up a business, buys shares or owns property primarily for long-term income, is not taxed on any capital gain they make. Therefore if a business owner sells his or her business and makes a $100,000 profit, this is not taxed. If a shareholder buys 100,000 shares for $1 and sells them for $2, they pay no tax. The same rule applies to rental property.

Many businesses make a loss during the first few years while getting established and rental property is no different. The rental market is extremely competitive and tenants enjoy lower rents because of this, helping them to save for a deposit on their own home.

The claim that rental property owners are somehow ripping off other tax payers and that a CGT would level the playing field is false.

A third point, often raised by CGT proponents, is that the rental industry is not part of the productive sector. This shows little understanding of what it takes to make a country productive.

Rental property owners house around a third of New Zealand’s workers. Without access to decent housing, these workers would be considerably less productive.

Rental property owners also contribute to the general economy through supporting banks, local councils, trades people, professionals, hardware stores, insurance companies and a host of other businesses.

It has been said that a CGT will allow a reduction of income tax.  This is an argument that may appeal to New Zealanders, especially high income earners who primarily invest in shares.

However any increase in tax revenue from a CGT is likely to be small. Overseas experience shows that a CGT does not raise a high level of tax dollars and is costly to administer. This means that any potential reduction in income tax levels is likely to be insignificant.

In addition, if a CGT is restricted to just rental property and excludes the family home, farms, businesses, shares and other types of investment, then the ability to collect enough tax to reduce income tax rates is even smaller.

Consider the tax losses that are currently being experienced by many rental property owners and the negative affect this would have on tax revenue should a CGT be introduced.

In summary, a CGT would not reduce property price increases and would not significantly increase the tax take. Rental property does not currently have a tax advantage over other businesses or investments, so a CGT would not create a level playing field – it would distort it.

Rental property is definitely part of the productive sector and to suggest otherwise is misleading.

Martin Evans is president of NZPIF

Property investors could well feel battered and bruised after many of the comments made in the media, following yesterday’s official cash rate announcement.

I’ll put it on the record now. Much of this property investor bashing is totally unwarranted. There is a perception, which is wrong in my view, that all these investors are hell-bent traders and speculators, buying and selling residential properties non-stop.

Wrong. The large majority of the investors we deal with through the NZ Property Investor Magazine and www.landlords.co.nz are conservative, buy-and-hold investors.

Some people chose to invest in shares, others prefer managed funds, while others go for cash and fixed interest. Many people have decided that property is their preferred means of saving and providing for their retirement. There are lots of reasons for this, and all of them quite valid. They range from the desire to hold something tangible they can see, touch and feel, through to having poor experiences in the sharemarket.

So I often come across investors who feel they have been unfairly castigated and discriminated against because of their choice of investment. Their view is at least they are doing something to plan for their retirement and aren’t relying in taxpayer-funded pension from the state.

Investing in property is not like some of the other asset classes. Yes, there are different tax rules and there are benefits like depreciation and gearing.

What seems to get lost in this debate is that these people are not only investors. They are running a business providing a service to fellow New Zealanders. Therefore, they quite rightly can use some of the same structures as business owners, such as loss attributing qualifying companies (LAQCs).

The other thing which surprises me is some of the comments about putting a capital gains tax on property investors. For the record, there already is one. The Inland Revenue Department is on a $15 million, three-year education and enforcement campaign to enforce this part of the law.

Already it has pulled in hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid tax.

One comment I do agree with from Dr Bollard is this: He says New Zealanders should not consider housing investment to be a one-way bet. Investment expectations need to be realistic. We won’t go back to the boom times of the past eight years. However, in the long run, property prices, like those of other asset classes, tend to appreciate.