Blog: The Landlord says...

It’s often said that New Zealanders have a real love for property, but I wonder how far it will stretch?

We know the government has been trying to break up this long term love affair, but with little success. Judging by two surveys, one run by Landlords.co.nz and the other by QV, investors are going to remain property investors.

However this week we have had more evidence that the local housing market is pretty flat and there are low sales volumes. In a word it’s lethargic.

Investors have been used to active markets in recent years and could well be interested in something more exciting than the local market.

It seems quite a few New Zealanders have bought property in Australia but I wonder how attractive the “lucky country” is currently.

I did read a piece which said the Australia has one of the most expensive house markets in the world.

One of the “new” things that I’m hearing about in the market is a number of companies wanting to promote the idea that Kiwis buy residential property in the United States.

Yes this sounds a little outlandish at face value, but the numbers being bandied around will look attractive.

I assume a lot of these properties are ones where the lenders have foreclosed on them and wanting out.

I have come across this idea before. One of the first times was when I profiled a quite remarkable Rotorua-based property investor Tracey Hintz. She owned lots of property in New Zealand and employed many different strategies.

However she also bought some property in the United States and made some good money.

There is a warning with this story. It’s not all plain sailing and the US housing market is remarkably different to ours and how it operates. No doubt this is more we will hear about soon.

I’m interested to see how many investors would consider investing in the US? Once I have some examples of the numbers being talked about I’ll post them here.

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Ha. Just when everyone said that rising interest rates would kill the housing market banks cut their rates.

Kiwibank surprised me yesterday when it took its two-year fixed rate below the 7.00% mark. But what surprised me even more was that most of the other banks followed suit quickly and ANZ and National Banks went one further.

They decided to lower their three, four and five year fixed home loan rates and made major cuts – 74 basis points in one case.

I was surprised as Nigel Stirling at Radio New Zealand asked me earlier in the day whether the conditions were ripe for a mortgage rate war. My answer was no.

A number of factors seemed to suggest otherwise. Banks tend to compete in just one major area at a time. Currently the battle is for term deposits.

Secondly competition tends to be around the times when the housing market is running hot, or when there is good demand for business. Thirdly none of the banks have shown much interest in aggressively fighting for home loan business.

So what happened? One is that things have changed in offshore markets and wholesale money is becoming available at attractive rates. Secondly banks have some pretty big margins at the moment so they have room to move on their interest rates. The third, and a good sign, is maybe some of this conservatism we have seen recently is wearing off.

While there may not be obvious signs that competition is picking up there are some positive developments. One is that non-bank lender NZF is keen to take on the banks in the prime lending market.

The cuts to medium and long term rates do another thing. They change the equation around borrowing strategies. For those on floating rates it looked as though they would have to ride out this part of the cycle at the short end of the yield curve. With two year rates of 6.99% versus floating rates of around 6.00% and forecast to rise the equation becomes quite different.

This maybe one of those short term windows where borrowers can lock in an attractive rate to help them in a rising interest rate environment.

PS: Tonight Westpac has followed ANZ National and cut longer term rates and BNZ has made its changes. Details here