Blog: The Landlord says...

It’s now a week since the Budget where finance minister Bill English tried to put the kibosh on the residential property market.

We’ve just completed a survey at Landlords.co.nz and the results show that while investors are not particularly happy with what Prime Minister John Key and English have done, it’s not enough to deter people from investing in bricks and mortar.

We will have full results from the survey on the site next week.

Looking through the data and the Budget in more detail, it’s clear there’s still plenty of work for property investors to do around their strategies and their property holding.

Perhaps one of the key points though is that much of this work will need to be done before April 1 next year when changes take effect.

The other interesting debate extending from the Budget is what will happen to house prices and rents. With the latter there is no doubt that rents will rise. By how much is one of those how-long-is-a-piece-of-string questions. Investors I have spoken to have a range of views on this from a big increase to small incremental increases over a period of time.

There is far less certainty around what will happen to house prices. One commentator who has had the most attention on this has been Kieran Trass. Funnily enough, his prediction was not too outlandish, rather it was his comment that if house prices didn’t fall by at least 5% in the next six to nine months he would walk the length of the country. (We’ll be keeping a close eye on this.)

My prediction is that house prices for lower-value properties will possibly soften in the short term and this may give some first home buyers the chance to get into the market. But judging from our survey, investors will still be active in the market which will help to put a foundation underneath it.

Maybe my prediction is similar to Kieran’s one? The only difference is I won’t have to leave my office if I’m wrong.

Property investors have been holding their breath for a long period of time waiting to see whether the government’s threats to give them the bash would come true.

They can now breathe a sigh of relief. The government was, as many expected, more mouth than biff.

The Budget included the predictable. Changes to depreciation; no capital gains tax; no stamp duty and no land tax.

The big worry was that some sort of ring-fencing of losses in LAQCs for property investment would be announced.

I have argued many times before that to single out one sector was unfair.

The changes it is making to LAQCs and qualifying companies have some logic to them. What is pleasing is that the changes are across the board, not just to property owning entities.

Also pleasing is that the government is closing down those who are rorting the system through Working For Families. I suspect this is a small minority of investors.

These changes to LAQCs make sense and will encourage investors to look at how they have structured their investments. Structuring has always been a hot topic for investors and will remain so.

It will be interesting to see how investors address this issues (email your thoughts to editor@landlords.co.nz or leave a comment below).

The biggest losers are tenants. There is no doubt rents will rise. Investors need to ensure their cash flows remain robust.  In some ways it is no surprise that tenants are the losers when a National-led government is in power.

While a number of commentators have said this is a good Budget for the savings industry and people who invest in financial assets, I don’t think it will make a material change to residential property investment.

Sure there will be some who are less enthused by the sector, but it will still remain popular.

What will change is the sort of strategies used. To move away from highly geared investments which rely on capital gains to work isn’t a bad thing.

Some numbers from Treasury this week show how important housing is to our overall wealth, and why it would be foolish for the government to make too many changes to property investment tax rules next week.

Treasury released its estimates of household assets and liabilities. It showed that houses make up nearly three quarters (74%) of our total gross assets. The actual number is $603 billion verses the $212 billion we have in financial assets (shares, KiwiSaver, deposits etc).

Yes there should be some encouragement to shift the balance so more of our wealth is held in financial assets, but it should be done on a softly, softly basis rather than by using shock tactics.

Plenty of New Zealanders are wary of financial markets and you can’t blame them when you see what has happened to share and bond markets in recent years.

We have seen government’s wipe millions off dollars of savings off New Zealanders before. One of the more recent examples is when the Labour government changed the rules in the telco market and destroyed massive value for Telecom shareholders.

Next week’s budget shouldn’t be National’s version of what not to do to people’s savings.

If it is then Prime Minister John Key could well end up on the menu at the property investors conference.

Housing is an important source of wealth not just in New Zealand, but also across the Tasman. Australia is often heralded as being a nation of sharemarket investors and a country where people own many financial assets because of its compulsory superannuation scheme.

However it still has the majority of its wealth in houses. Figures show that 59%of their wealth is in bricks and mortar, as opposed to our 74%.

Sometimes sitting and waiting for an important appointment is one of the hardest things to do. It feels like that at the moment, as we are just under a fortnight out from what maybe one of the biggest forces to hit the property investment world – the May 20 Budget.

The government has made it clear changes are imminent, but what is in store still remains a mystery. In talking to property investors there is a view that the changes will not be as big, as first indicated. Maybe it will be changes to depreciation rules and a little bit more tinkering.

Then maybe investors are being lulled into some false sense of security, thinking this government isn’t bold enough to make mega-changes which would hurt a core constituency?

While the changes are unknown their pending announcement is being blamed for a subdued housing market.

This week Barfoot & Thompson put out its latest sales stats for the Auckland market. These showed that sale prices dropped by more than $3,000 last month.

Likewise, ASB put out its quarterly housing confidence report. This too showed things are pretty subdued at the moment. Indeed ASB is predicting that house prices could fall 3% to 4% this year due to a lack of buyer appetite.

I think that is a pretty brave call. Many of the factors which influence the market are reasonably neutral at the moment. Perhaps the biggest factor in real estate land is the “wide imbalance” between supply and demand.

I’m wondering if once the Budget comes around people will act quite quickly and try and sell properties (if the news is bad) or whether the opposite happens. That is if the changes are palatable, uncertainty is removed and buyers will act quickly.

Perhaps this situation would be helped by the prospect that interest rates will start increasing in June or July at the latest. Whatever, getting this appointment behind us is something all investors are looking forward to.